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What's Causing "Conversion Disorder" in LeRoy?

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EXPERT CONTACT :

David G. Lichter, MD

Professor of Neurology

University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

Contact Ellen Goldbaum at 716-645-4605 or egoldbaum@buffalo.edu

Lichter, an expert in movement disorders, including Tourette's Syndrome and other tic disorders, has been interviewed by numerous local and national media concerning the emergence of multiple cases of "conversion disorder" in a high school in LeRoy, N.Y.

What is conversion disorder and why does it seem more common among girls than boys?

Conversion disorder is defined as a loss of, or alteration in, physical functioning in which psychological factors are judged to be causally related to the symptoms. This link is suggested by a temporal relationship between a significant psychosocial stressor and initiation or exacerbation of the symptom. Importantly, the person is not conscious of intentionally producing the symptom. This differentiates conversion disorder from factitious disorder or malingering. Conversion disorder is, indeed, more common among girls than boys and particularly affects adolescent girls and young women. One suggestion is that females are more prone to internalizing stress than males. Females may also be more suggestible than males.

How do you think social networking has influenced the appearance of these symptoms?

In the past, symptoms or behaviors of mass psychogenic illness have been spread from a small number of individuals to larger numbers of individuals by what we call "line of sight" and "line of hearing," where the affected sufferers share a common, enclosed environment, such as a school. Social networking now provides another avenue for symptoms to be transmitted rapidly to potentially vulnerable individuals who may be geographically distant from, or not yet directly exposed to, the original cohort.

Do you think the media attention has caused the illness to spread to more people?

It is difficult to know whether media attention may have contributed to the spread of symptoms to others and it is important to note that three of the girls did have pre-existing tic disorders that were not due to psychogenic illness. However, I believe that the intense media scrutiny in this case, including the continued attention to alternative possible causes of the students' symptoms, has heightened anxiety, fostered an environment of mistrust and diverted attention away from the diagnosis that has been accepted by all professionals who have been directly involved in the evaluation and care of these students, i.e. conversion disorder. The result, in some cases, has been a failure to date to initiate appropriate supportive care or an abandonment of such care. This appears to have resulted in some cases in behavioral regression, compared with symptomatic improvement in those who have accepted the diagnosis and continued with appropriate therapy.

How long does conversion disorder usually last?

In cases where the disorder is quickly diagnosed, the diagnosis is accepted by the family and rapid, appropriate and supportive intervention is undertaken, conversion disorder can be successfully treated, with relatively rapid symptomatic resolution, sometimes in a few weeks. This is particularly likely in cases where the individual has healthy personality characteristics and good family support. In the absence of such positive predictors of outcome, the disorder may become chronic and refractory to treatment efforts.

Are researchers working on ways to better detect and treat conversion disorder?

Researchers are indeed working to better understand and treat conversion disorder. The LeRoy students have been offered free evaluation at the National Institutes of Health and have been offered inclusion in its ongoing research study of conversion disorder, which includes functional brain imaging. This research is being undertaken by the Human Motor Control Section at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke by experts in both biologically based and psychologically based movement disorders, including some of the clinical, electrophysiologic and brain imaging overlap between the two.

Related Topics:

conversion disorder, LeRoy

UB Expert Weighs in on the Impact of Rick Perry Dropping out of the Presidential Race

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Dr. James E. Campbell

UB Distinguished Professor and chair of the UB Department of Political Science

University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences

716-645-8452

jcampbell@buffalo.edu

Campbell is a specialist in American electoral politics and forecasting. His insights into the effect of Governor Rick Perry dropping out of the presidential race are below:

"Rick Perry's dropping out of the race and his endorsement of Newt Gingrich, along with Sarah Palin's indication that she would vote for Gingrich in the South Carolina primary, are indications that Gingrich is well prositioned to become the conservative alternative to a Mitt Romney nomnation.

"The only remaining obstacle is Rick Santorum. Though highly regarded by social conservatives and having run strongly in Iowa, Santorum appears to be a second choice to Gingrich among conservative Republicans nationally. I would guess that Santorum may be pressed to drop out of the race if he finishes third or fourth in South Carolina.

"The Republican contest this year has been very unusual in that it has pitted the Republican establishment backing Romney against the party's large conservative base who have made their opposition to Romney very clear through their support of various candidates (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum) and possible candidates (from Donald Trump to Chris Christie).

"It appears that the base may get its wish of a head-to-head match up between Romney and a single conservative alternative. Ironically, if this does happen, it might be attributed to the role of Super PACs in this campaign. They may have made the process more democratic than it might otherwise have been by allowing candidates to stay in the race longer and to fend off attacks from other well-financed candidates."

SOPA's Vague Language Could Lead to Wide Restrictions on Information Available on the Internet, UB Expert Says

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Mark Bartholomew

Associate Professor of Law

University at Buffalo Law School

716-645-5959

bartholo@buffalo.edu

Bartholomew is an expert in intellectual property and cyber law. With Wikipedia, Reddit and other websites “going dark” today to raise awareness about two anti-piracy bills that could affect the amount of content available on the Internet, Bartholomew shared his thoughts on the pending legislation. The bills, the Stop Online Piracy Act and PROTECT IP Act, are commonly known as “SOPA and PIPA.”

On why SOPA could have a “chilling” effect:
 
“The problem with SOPA is that the language is very vague. So let’s say this passes without any further changes -- then we’re going to have to rely on judges to evaluate this language. They could construe it very narrowly and it won’t affect things very much. Or they could construe it very broadly so that all of a sudden, all this information on the Web is no longer available. And that’s something potentially chilling -- having this vague language out there that gets passed by Congress.”
 
“From the perspective of Google and other Silicon Valley technologists, the thought is that this is going to go too far: How are we supposed to know when a rogue website is 100 percent bad? Maybe they just have a couple of things that are infringing.  Should a search engine really be required to block all access to that website?”
 
On the widespread protest against SOPA and PIPA on the Web, with Wikipedia and other sites “going dark” to raise awareness about the legislation:
 
“I have been surprised. The story of modern copyright law in this country has largely been of the copyright interests having their way with Congress. The music and motion picture industries have been incredibly effective lobbyists. But now we see for perhaps the first time technologists like Google really flexing their political muscle to potentially stop this legislation in its tracks. I’m not that surprised that the blogosphere is objecting to these proposed laws, but I am impressed by how technology companies are channeling this Internet outrage into real political momentum.”
 
On the purpose of SOPA:
 
“The purpose of the law is to limit the activity of infringers who offer copyrighted material for free online. We can’t stop these rogue infringers who act in foreign jurisdictions, where U.S. law often doesn’t reach. So the next best thing is to require Google or Yahoo and sites like these to kick those people off the system.”
 
“Currently, Internet companies are only responsible for removing specific infringing materials when they’re notified of those specific materials by the copyright holder. With SOPA, the threat is that they can be forced to remove entire websites. So instead of removing one infringing video, Google would no longer be able to present you with search results from an entire website.”
Related Topics:

cyber law, Internet, SOPA

Holiday Drinking: Expert Offers Game Plan for Safety

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Jennifer Read

Associate Professor of Psychology

University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences

jpread@buffalo.edu

Read, an expert on teen drinking, has a simple but effective message for anyone making decisions about alcohol, holiday parties and ways to be safe: Just use your head, she says. Develop a plan before your evening starts, and stick to it.

Read has studied factors that contribute to drinking among teenage and college-aged students. She speaks to groups about responsible drinking, and has also counseled parents about how to talk to their children about drinking, driving and holiday partying.
 
Q: What are some things that people can do to prevent themselves and others from drinking and driving during the holidays?
 
A: One is to decide ahead of time how much you want to drink. Set a limit and then keep that limit in mind as you go about the evening. Also, plan ahead regarding driving. Who will be the designated driver that evening? This is something that people should decide on ahead.
 
Q: Why do people tend to drink too much during the holidays?
 
A: The thing is that when we're out with other people, we aren't always paying attention to how much we drink. We're paying attention to the conversation, the people, the decorations, lots of other things. Because we're distracted by all that's going on, we tend not to notice how intoxicated we might be feeling.
 
As alcohol impairs judgment, the more we drink, the less able we are to determine that we've had enough. Also, in social settings, other people often get drinks for us or give us drinks with alcohol. These offers of alcohol tend to make people drink more.
 
Q: Is there anything in particular that parents can do to help teenagers and young adults from putting themselves in harm's way?
 
A: One thing is to pass on what they know about smart drinking. The other thing that parents can do is to ask questions about who will be driving that evening. This is true even for parents of older adolescents like teenagers or even college students.
 
Just asking important questions like "Who is going to be driving you to the party tonight?" or "Have you decided on a designated  driver?" can help to remind them that they need to make responsible decisions around alcohol even as they're enjoying the holiday season.
Related Topics:

alcohol, drinking

Floss Every Day to Protect Against Pneumonia and Heart Disease, UB Researchers Say

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Dr. Robert J. Genco

UB Distinguished Professor and Vice Provost

University at Buffalo Office of Science, Technology Transfer and Economic Outreach

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Dr. Ali A. El Sohl

Research Professor of Social and Preventive Medicine

University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

To schedule an interview with El Solh or Genco, contact Sara Saldi in the Office of University Communications at 716-645-4593 or saldi@buffalo.edu.

Good oral hygiene may help prevent pneumonia and heart disease, according to two UB researchers. A study done by UB professor of medicine, Ali A. El Solh, MD, indicates that periodontal microbes are a possible reservoir for recurrent lower respiratory tract infections in nursing home residents.
 
And research done by UB Distinguished Professor and Vice Provost Robert J. Genco, DDS, shows a strong association between periodontal microbes and non-fatal heart attacks.
 
El Solh’s research, published in the academic journal Lung, shows that the control of gingivitis and dental plaques has been effective in reducing the rate of pneumonia, but the provision of dental care for those in nursing homes is inadequate.
 
“Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death attributable to infection in patients aged 65 and older and accounts for 13 to 48 percent of infections in the nursing home setting with mortality rates as high as 55 percent,” he says. 
 
Development of an individualized oral health care plan for elderly in long-term care facilities will enable early identification and prevention of known risk factor for pneumonia, he says. “It is equally important that oral hygiene is maintained throughout the stay of the resident,” he adds. “Further studies are needed to determine the optimal method and frequency of treatment.”
 
Genco’s study was published in Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology.  A pioneer in research showing the effect of oral bacterial on health, Genco is co-editor "Periodontal Disease and Overall Health: A Clinician's Guide," a new textbook that features 18 chapters of information regarding the relationship between oral and systemic diseases.
 
“There is strong evidence for an association of periodontal disease and heart disease,” he explains. “Recent studies show that by reducing periodontal disease, many of the factors associated with increased heart disease are reduced.  
 
“So it is reasonable to recommend daily oral hygiene as a measure not only to prevent tooth loss, but also it may reduce risk for heart disease.”
 
View El Solh’s and Genco’s studies:

As U.S. Forces Leave Iraq, UB Experts Can Discuss What the Future Holds for Returning Veterans

With U.S. forces leaving Iraq, experts from the University at Buffalo are available to discuss the challenges veterans face upon returning home. From job hunting in a weak economy to living with traumatic brain injury or PTSD, readjusting to life in the civilian world can be difficult.

 

DAY-TO-DAY LIVING

Employment
Holly Justice
Career Counselor
University at Buffalo Career Services
716-645-4640
hjustice@buffalo.edu
 
Justice can discuss how veterans can translate their military experience into resumes that catch the attention of civilian companies. While veterans completing enlistments come home with valuable skills, finding work can be difficult if employers don’t understand how responsibilities in Iraq and Afghanistan apply to civilian jobs, she says.
View a Q&A with Justice on veterans seeking employment: http://ubfacultyexperts.buffalo.edu/tip/145

Creating a comfortable environment at home
Danise Levine (availability may be limited)
Assistant Director
University at Buffalo Center for Inclusive Design and Environmental Access (IDeA Center)
716-645-4655
chsu22@buffalo.edu
 
Levine can discuss how families can improve their homes to provide comfortable living for returning veterans. Through the Wounded Warrior Home Project at Fort Belvoir, Va., she helped design two demonstration houses that address challenges that wounded veterans might face. Exterior lights provide security and comfort for soldiers with PTSD, for instance, while wider doorways make it easier for soldiers with limb amputations to get around.
Read a story on Levine’s work with veterans: http://www.buffalo.edu/ubreporter/2011_11_17/wounded_warriors
 

LIVING WITH INJURIES

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
John Violanti
Professor of Social and Preventive Medicine
University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences
716-829-5367
violanti@buffalo.edu
 
Violanti can discuss the causes and symptoms of PTSD, as well as how social support from family and friends can help ameliorate the effects of the disorder. Violanti is a military veteran and a former member of the New York State Police. He studies the effect of stress in persons working in dangerous professions, such as police, firefighting and military occupations.
 
Tinnitus (The perception of sound without any acoustic stimulus)
Richard Salvi
Director of the UB Center for Hearing and Deafness, and Professor of Communicative Disorders and Sciences, otolaryngology and neurology
University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences and College of Arts and Sciences
salvi@buffalo.edu
 
Salvi can discuss causes and symptoms of tinnitus, as well as advances in treatment. He organized a conference this summer that brought together the world’s leading experts on the disorder. Tinnitus, sometimes called a ringing in the ears, is the perception of sound in the absence of a corresponding external stimulus.
 
As many as half of combat soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan return home with tinnitus, making it a huge and expensive problem for the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, Salvi says. He has also done work on noise-induced hearing loss, a frequent cause of tinnitus.
Read a story about the tinnitus conference Salvi organized: http://www.buffalo.edu/news/12768
Read about tinnitus and Salvi’s work in the New Yorker: http://bit.ly/vhWoNM
 
Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)
Kerry Donnelly
Clinical Assistant Professor in Psychiatry and Adjunct Assistant Professor of Counseling, School and Educational Psychology
University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences and Graduate School of Education
&
Clinical Neuropsychologist
Veterans Affairs (VA) Western New York Health Care System
716-645-2484
kzd@buffalo.edu
 
Donnelly can discuss the long-term challenges and effects of TBI, a “signature injury” of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At several Upstate New York VA medical centers, she is leading a four-year study following veterans with TBI, which can lead to deficits in memory, attention and decision-making. Veterans who have mild TBI may be overlooked by the health care system, especially when they have more obvious, visible injuries, Donnelly says.
Read a story about Donnelly’s study on TBI: http://www.buffalo.edu/news/9884

'There's No Such Thing As a Minor Concussion,' UB Doctor Says

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Dr. John J. Leddy

Associate Professor of Clinical Orthopaedics and Director of the UB Concussion Management Clinic

University at Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

leddy@buffalo.edu

With the NFL and NHL seasons well under way, Leddy discusses the progress that doctors, teams and athletes have made in understanding concussions and recognizing the seriousness of the injuries. With colleague Barry Willer, Leddy has developed an exercise-based test that helps doctors understand when it’s safe for an athlete to return to play. Athletes treated at Leddy’s concussion management clinic include Toronto Maple Leafs center Tim Connolly, formerly of the Buffalo Sabres.

On the need to take concussions seriously:
 
“There’s no such thing as a minor concussion, and the problem is that once you have one or two, you’re more likely to have a third, fourth or a fifth, and then you are at risk for sustaining cumulative and permanent damage over time. The brain is a unique organ. You only have one, and you need it for almost everything else. Clearly, the animal and human research shows that if somebody goes back before they’re fully recovered, they’re going to fare much worse and often will have a second, more significant, injury.”
 
On the progress that doctors, teams and the public have made in recognizing that concussions are serious:
 
“When I was playing high school sports, people went into play after concussions. Nobody realized that they were dangerous. They thought you got your “bell rung,” and then you got over it and that was it.”
 
“It’s really gotten press in the last two or three years at the NFL level and NHL level. And then when you have very prominent athletes like Sidney Crosby and Eric Lindros—they get a lot of publicity and it starts to get public attention. I think with all the publicity about concussions in professional athletes over the past year, scholastic athletes and team physicians are certainly taking concussion more seriously now.”
 
On the method Leddy and Willer have developed to test whether athletes are ready to return to play:
 
“We use a standardized treadmill exercise test to establish the exercise tolerance of patients with post-concussion symptoms lasting more than three weeks. In the test, patients exercise on a treadmill with gradually increasing intensity until they can exercise to full capacity without worsening symptoms.”
 
“The test replicates the physiology of what athletes have to do during sport. It helps us determine when an athlete is physiologically recovered from concussion and is safe to return to play. It is our experience that this program speeds recovery in those with abnormal physiology, especially in athletes.”
 
"The test also assists in the differential diagnosis of ongoing symptoms—physiologic post-concussion syndrome versus cervical injury versus migraine headaches, for example. Patients with physiologic post-concussion syndrome are given a specific exercise prescription based upon the treadmill results to safely perform at home on a daily basis. When we rule out physiologic post-concussion syndrome with the treadmill test, we are able to direct specific therapy to the underlying problem, such as a cervical issue or a migraine headache."

Related Stories:
The Right Call: Pioneering Research at UB Concussion Management Clinic Helps Football Player Make Tough Choice

As Lipitor Goes Generic on Nov. 30, UB Expert Expects a Huge Shift in Statin Use

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Nicholas B. Norgard

Clinical Assistant Professor of Cardiology

University at Buffalo School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences

North Campus Office: 716-645-4779

Center of Excellence Office: 716-881-7908

nnorgard@buffalo.edu

Norgard weighs in on Lipitor going generic and what it means to patients, pharmaceutical companies and the future of health care.

"We are in the era of evidence-based medicine and the evidence supports atorvastatin as the statin of choice for cardiovascular protection. Yet as practitioners, we have been sacrificing the benefits that could be gained with atorvastatin for less potent, less effective statins because of cost. The high cost of the brand name statins really places a high burden on our patients. When we try to use the more potent, brand name statins, we have found that more than 50 percent of patients quit taking them within the first year due in large part to cost. This is not at all ideal given the huge benefit these drugs afford. I expect that when atorvastatin goes generic and the cost comes down, the obtainability and adherence of atorvastatin will improve dramatically. And this, in turn, will lead to better protected patients and a reduction in cardiac events, procedures, and hospitalizations.

"The statins, as a class, have been a major advancement in cardiology.  It is estimated that almost 11 million Americans take a statin, and that about 25 million more should be on one. Comparatively, taking a statin for cardiac prevention is more effective and probably safer than taking an aspirin a day. Lipitor, generic name atorvastatin, has been one of the top-selling branded pharmaceutical drugs in the world for several years, contributing $10.7 billion to Pfizer’s revenue in 2010 alone. Lower-cost generic versions of Lipitor are set to become available December 1, 2011. I believe that we will see a huge shift in statin use when atorvastatin goes generic.
 
"Atorvastatin is considered a “potent” statin in terms of its ability to lower LDL cholesterol.  At its highest dose, it can lower the LDL cholesterol by over 50%.  Only Crestor (rosuvastatin) can produce greater reductions in LDL cholesterol, but will not be available as a generic for several years.  Up until now, simvastatin has been the most potent, generically available statin but has recently acquired FDA authorized dosing restrictions because of issues with high doses and drug interactions causing serious adverse effects.  Atorvastatin, on the other hand, more effectively lowers cholesterol than simvastatin and has fewer drug interactions.
 
"However, we must keep in mind that statins do more than just lower cholesterol. The reason we use statins over other types of cholesterol lowering drugs is because they have been shown in clinical trials to unequivocally reduce the risk of heart disease, stroke, and even prolong life.  Atorvastatin is the statin with the most evidence from clinical trials to support its use. In fact, atorvastatin is one of the most widely studied drugs in the world. It has been shown to reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, regardless of cholesterol level.  For people with heart disease, atorvastatin has been shown to be superior to less potent, generically available statins, including pravastatin and simvastatin, at lowering the risk of cardiac events, stokes, and subsequent death."
 
On the future of cardiovascular drug development:
 
"Cardiovascular disease remains the #1 cause of death in the world. However, there has been a decline in cardiovascular death rates over the last couple decades, largely due to the huge escalation in the use of statins and our improved efforts in lowering blood pressure and reducing smoking. 
"Due to the success of current medications, many believe the era of the blockbuster cardiac drug is over. Plus, in the cardiac field there are multibillion-dollar drug-development costs because of the need for large studies enrolling tens of thousands of patients when testing a cardiovascular drug. It seems that PHRMA recognizes this as they appear to be directing their R&D efforts towards other disease states. For instance, the number of cancer drugs underdevelopment out numbers cardiac drugs underdevelopment almost 7 to 1. It is estimated that cardiovascular-drug projects now comprise only 6% of total PHRMA projects.
"Apart from creating 'me too' drugs and combinations of previously marketed drugs, the development of novel cardiac drugs appears to be a difficult journey for PHRMA at this point. However, there are areas for growth in cardiovascular disease because it’s not like cardiovascular morbidity and mortality have been resolved, by any means. For instance, the growing epidemic of childhood obesity and diabetes may erase the decline in cardiovascular death rates made over the last couple decades. Also, despite some major therapy advancements, heart failure has a shorter life expectancy than almost every cancer. Finally, we are just realizing the power of pharmacogenomics and individualized therapy with cardiovascular drugs, an area that cardiovascular-drug research lags far behind cancer but represents a huge area for growth."

‘I was an E-4.’ Cutting Jargon from Resumes Helps Veterans Find Civilian Jobs, UB Career Counselor Says

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Holly Justice

Career Counselor

University at Buffalo Career Services

716-645-4640

hjustice@buffalo.edu

Justice can talk about how veterans can translate their military experience into resumes that will catch the attention of civilian companies. While veterans completing enlistments come home with valuable skills, finding work can be difficult if employers don’t understand how responsibilities in Iraq and Afghanistan apply to civilian jobs, she says.

Q: How can a good resume help veterans re-enter the civilian work world?

A:  The challenge that veterans face is to translate military language on their resumes to something that civilians unfamiliar with the military culture will understand and appreciate. Veterans need to be descriptive in their language so that civilian employers have a better picture of the candidate’s responsibilities and accomplishments.

A resume that truly illustrates the individuals’ experience and skill sets is critical to getting an interview.

Veterans looking to enter the civilian job market have incredible skills to offer employers. They can be a great fit for companies seeking candidates who are adaptable and have great professionalism, along with leadership and management experience.

Q: What are some common mistakes veterans might make when writing a civilian resume?

A: One of the most common issues is the use of military jargon that is not familiar to civilians. Veterans may list their rank as an “E-4,”or list a military term for the unit they led.
If the civilian employer or staffing agency is unfamiliar with the military, they will not understand the level of importance of that rank, or how large the unit was or what a job actually included in its responsibilities. Instead of saying you’re an “E-4,” you probably need to include a title that describes of your role, along with information that gives a sense of your duties.
Another typical issue is how the veteran describes his or her experience and accomplishments. The military is very team- and mission-oriented. The civilian corporate world tends to be driven by profit margins and competition within the company.
Veterans must highlight the parallel experiences of customer service, team work and accomplishment that come from completing a mission.
Q: What kinds of skills might veterans highlight?
A: Leadership is important. For instance, a veteran might want to say how many people they commanded, but instead of using the word “command,” they might want to consider using a civilian term like “managed” or “led.”
At our career workshops, we don’t go in-depth with the students about every branch and every position, because there are so many. Everyone’s experience is different.
We just want to help people recognize that there are changes they can make that will improve their employment opportunity chances, and to point them to some resources that can help them make improvements.
Q: For people who can’t attend your workshop, what are some resources available to help veterans improve their civilian resumes?
A: UB Students are welcome to use the Career Services office and library, of course. Any veteran can check out some great resources online for working on their resume such as The National Resource Directory and Department of Labor’s “Hiring Our Heroes” site.
There are also many sites that assist veterans with their job search and career development, including MyNextMove for Veterans and the Transition Assistance Online program, just to name a few.
Related Topics:

careers, resumes, Veterans

Campaign 2012: In Presidential Race, Climate Looks Favorable for Republicans, UB Expert Says

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EXPERT CONTACT :

Dr. James E. Campbell

UB Distinguished Professor and chair of the UB Department of Political Science

University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences

716-645-8452

jcampbel@buffalo.edu

Campbell is a specialist in American electoral politics and forecasting. He says that with the 2012 presidential campaign in full swing, President Obama's low approval rating and the struggling economy will be key indicators in the election outcome. Campbell also points out that only one incumbent president -- Harry Truman -- has succeeded in retaking the office with an approval rating of below 45 percent.

Additional insight from Campbell:

On President Obama's low approval rating and performance with regards to the economy:

“President Obama has a high 30 to low 40 percent approval rating and historically only one incumbent presidential candidate -- Harry Truman -- has succeeded in retaking the office with an approval rating of below 45 percent. He has plenty of time to bounce back and hit that key threshold, but it is still likely to be a close election.”

“The economy is simply the overriding issue in the campaign. Americans historically have not accepted presidential excuses for a weak economy, so even if the economy shows signs of recovery at election time, the president carries the weight of poor economic performance.”

“Americans want to see performance so for the president to say the recession began on Bush’s watch or that the fault lies with Wall Street will not help with swing or Republican voters. Even the issue of raising taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent may resonate with people, but my guess is that will be seen as a distraction from the general economic weakness and that it actually won’t help him that much.”

On the climate and challenges for Republicans:

“With an incumbent in the race, the presidential record over the last four years will really shape the election’s focus. The political climate looks favorable for the Republicans, but they have to be concerned about having a reasonable candidate that will allow voters to register their dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s record, particularly in respect to the economy.”

“The real driver in how effective the Republicans will be in the race will be in how well they prevent President Obama from going on the offensive. The campaign has to stay focused on the past record because if it becomes about the future, the president has a greater chance of success.”

“The longer the Republican field stays crowded the more it works to Mitt Romney’s advantage, but there is still a great deal of anyone but Romney sentiment out there. He is still the front runner but has not put much distance between himself and the other candidates. The Republican race for a candidate could stay alive right until the time of the convention, but more likely will clarify based on how well Romney does in the southern states."

On the Republican field and who has a chance at winning it:

“Republicans are looking for someone that doesn’t get in the way of voters registering their feelings of contempt."

“The way I look at the Republican candidate field right now is that Mitt Romney is a slight front runner, but he really faces a serious challenge from Rick Perry. He may also face a challenge, albeit perhaps less so, from some of the others including Herman Cain. Cain is a surprising candidate and an untested candidate. In spite of the fact that he has not held public office, he is getting support from a lot of groups that are in the camp of anyone but Romney. His lack of governing experience might help initially with tea party supporters, but when you have an untested candidate with some clear gaps in his knowledge of politics and government that can be a substantial liability against a sharp candidate like President Obama.”

“But look at how this race has moved. Perry has been at the front, then fallen behind. Michele Bachmann has looked strong then fallen back. Through all of it, Romney’s numbers have stayed at about 25 percent.”

“It still seems, however, that about two-thirds of Republicans are still searching for an acceptable candidate. The basis for that might be that religion could be a concern; some may not be comfortable having a Mormon in the White House. And then of course, his record as governor of taking fairly liberal positions and then changing his position on not just one, or two, but on many issues means that he comes to the race with some substantial baggage.”

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