UB Faculty Experts

EXPERT CONTACT : Dr. James E. Campbell UB Distinguished Professor and chair of the UB Department of Political Science University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences 716-645-8452 jcampbell@buffalo.edu

Campbell is a specialist in American electoral politics and forecasting. His insights into the effect of Governor Rick Perry dropping out of the presidential race are below:

"Rick Perry's dropping out of the race and his endorsement of Newt Gingrich, along with Sarah Palin's indication that she would vote for Gingrich in the South Carolina primary, are indications that Gingrich is well prositioned to become the conservative alternative to a Mitt Romney nomnation.

"The only remaining obstacle is Rick Santorum. Though highly regarded by social conservatives and having run strongly in Iowa, Santorum appears to be a second choice to Gingrich among conservative Republicans nationally. I would guess that Santorum may be pressed to drop out of the race if he finishes third or fourth in South Carolina.

"The Republican contest this year has been very unusual in that it has pitted the Republican establishment backing Romney against the party's large conservative base who have made their opposition to Romney very clear through their support of various candidates (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum) and possible candidates (from Donald Trump to Chris Christie).

"It appears that the base may get its wish of a head-to-head match up between Romney and a single conservative alternative. Ironically, if this does happen, it might be attributed to the role of Super PACs in this campaign. They may have made the process more democratic than it might otherwise have been by allowing candidates to stay in the race longer and to fend off attacks from other well-financed candidates."