UB Faculty Experts

EXPERT CONTACT : Dr. James E. Campbell UB Distinguished Professor and chair of the UB Department of Political Science University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences 716-645-8452 jcampbel@buffalo.edu

Campbell is a specialist in American electoral politics and forecasting. He says that with the 2012 presidential campaign in full swing, President Obama's low approval rating and the struggling economy will be key indicators in the election outcome. Campbell also points out that only one incumbent president -- Harry Truman -- has succeeded in retaking the office with an approval rating of below 45 percent.

Additional insight from Campbell:

On President Obama's low approval rating and performance with regards to the economy:

“President Obama has a high 30 to low 40 percent approval rating and historically only one incumbent presidential candidate -- Harry Truman -- has succeeded in retaking the office with an approval rating of below 45 percent. He has plenty of time to bounce back and hit that key threshold, but it is still likely to be a close election.”

“The economy is simply the overriding issue in the campaign. Americans historically have not accepted presidential excuses for a weak economy, so even if the economy shows signs of recovery at election time, the president carries the weight of poor economic performance.”

“Americans want to see performance so for the president to say the recession began on Bush’s watch or that the fault lies with Wall Street will not help with swing or Republican voters. Even the issue of raising taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent may resonate with people, but my guess is that will be seen as a distraction from the general economic weakness and that it actually won’t help him that much.”

On the climate and challenges for Republicans:

“With an incumbent in the race, the presidential record over the last four years will really shape the election’s focus. The political climate looks favorable for the Republicans, but they have to be concerned about having a reasonable candidate that will allow voters to register their dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s record, particularly in respect to the economy.”

“The real driver in how effective the Republicans will be in the race will be in how well they prevent President Obama from going on the offensive. The campaign has to stay focused on the past record because if it becomes about the future, the president has a greater chance of success.”

“The longer the Republican field stays crowded the more it works to Mitt Romney’s advantage, but there is still a great deal of anyone but Romney sentiment out there. He is still the front runner but has not put much distance between himself and the other candidates. The Republican race for a candidate could stay alive right until the time of the convention, but more likely will clarify based on how well Romney does in the southern states."

On the Republican field and who has a chance at winning it:

“Republicans are looking for someone that doesn’t get in the way of voters registering their feelings of contempt."

“The way I look at the Republican candidate field right now is that Mitt Romney is a slight front runner, but he really faces a serious challenge from Rick Perry. He may also face a challenge, albeit perhaps less so, from some of the others including Herman Cain. Cain is a surprising candidate and an untested candidate. In spite of the fact that he has not held public office, he is getting support from a lot of groups that are in the camp of anyone but Romney. His lack of governing experience might help initially with tea party supporters, but when you have an untested candidate with some clear gaps in his knowledge of politics and government that can be a substantial liability against a sharp candidate like President Obama.”

“But look at how this race has moved. Perry has been at the front, then fallen behind. Michele Bachmann has looked strong then fallen back. Through all of it, Romney’s numbers have stayed at about 25 percent.”

“It still seems, however, that about two-thirds of Republicans are still searching for an acceptable candidate. The basis for that might be that religion could be a concern; some may not be comfortable having a Mormon in the White House. And then of course, his record as governor of taking fairly liberal positions and then changing his position on not just one, or two, but on many issues means that he comes to the race with some substantial baggage.”